Gradski Stadion Sabac · Analysis updated 14:49 UTC
Macva vs Mladost Lucani Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.02 expected goals for Macva and 0.98 for Mladost Lucani, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Macva the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.4% probability
Expected goals
1.02 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Macva home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mladost Lucani away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Macva to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 36% / 31% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.02 goals for Macva and 0.98 for Mladost Lucani, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.8%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–113.3%
- 2–07.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.75 (model 60.1% vs market 52.7%, edge +7.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.75 | 52.7% | 60.1% | 1.66 | +7.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.50 | 63.0% | 64.3% | 1.56 | +1.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.90 | 30.6% | 30.8% | 3.25 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.50 | 35.5% | 35.6% | 2.81 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.62 | 33.9% | 33.5% | 2.99 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.36 | 69.5% | 69.1% | 1.45 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.40 | 67.5% | 66.4% | 1.51 | -1.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.95 | 47.3% | 39.9% | 2.51 | -7.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Macva
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Mladost Lucani · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Železničar Pančevo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Radnicki 1923 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Novi Pazar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Radnicki NIS · 1-0 (W)
Mladost Lucani
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Macva · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Radnicki 1923 · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Radnicki NIS · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs IMT Novi Beograd · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Partizan · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 28 |
| 2 | Vojvodina | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 22 |
| 3 | Radnicki 1923 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | Mladost Lucani | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 16 |
| 5 | IMT Novi Beograd | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 6 | Železničar Pančevo | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 7 | Radnik Surdulica | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Novi Pazar | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 9 | Cukaricki | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 11 |
| 10 | OFK Beograd | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 9 |
| 11 | FK Partizan | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Radnicki NIS | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 13 | Macva | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Zemun | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -13 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.