· Analysis updated 06:03 UTC
Macva vs Napredak Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Macva and 0.99 for Napredak, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Macva the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.1% probability
Expected goals
1.11 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Macva home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Napredak away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Macva to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 30% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for Macva and 0.99 for Napredak, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.6%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–012.2%
- 0–112.1%
- 2–07.6%
Recent form
Macva
- 2026-10-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Zemun · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T17:00:00.000Z · H vs OFK Beograd · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Cukaricki · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Mladost Lucani · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Železničar Pančevo · 0-2 (L)
Napredak
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Borac Cacak · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dubočica · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Naftagas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Loznica · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Vozdovac · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.