Gradski Stadion Sabac · Analysis updated 16:44 UTC
Macva vs OFK Beograd Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.31 expected goals for Macva and 1.43 for OFK Beograd, a combined total of 2.73. That distribution gives OFK Beograd the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.5% probability
Expected goals
1.31 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Macva home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
OFK Beograd away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates OFK Beograd to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 35% / 26% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.31 goals for Macva and 1.43 for OFK Beograd, a combined 2.73 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 0–19.3%
- 1–28.6%
- 1–08.5%
- 2–17.9%
Recent form
Macva
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Mladost Lucani · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Železničar Pančevo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Radnicki 1923 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Novi Pazar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Radnicki NIS · 1-0 (W)
OFK Beograd
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Radnicki 1923 · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Radnicki NIS · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs IMT Novi Beograd · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-31T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Partizan · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Zemun · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 28 |
| 2 | Vojvodina | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 22 |
| 3 | Radnicki 1923 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | Mladost Lucani | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 16 |
| 5 | IMT Novi Beograd | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 6 | Železničar Pančevo | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 7 | Radnik Surdulica | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Novi Pazar | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 9 | Cukaricki | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 11 |
| 10 | OFK Beograd | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 9 |
| 11 | FK Partizan | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Radnicki NIS | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 13 | Macva | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Zemun | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -13 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.