· Analysis updated 09:34 UTC
Madagascar vs Equatorial Guinea Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Madagascar and 1.18 for Equatorial Guinea, a combined total of 2.76. That distribution gives Madagascar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Madagascar win
46.5% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Madagascar home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Equatorial Guinea away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Madagascar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 25% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Madagascar and 1.18 for Equatorial Guinea, a combined 2.76 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–07.9%
- 0–17.5%
Recent form
Madagascar
- 2026-09-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tanzania · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Nigeria · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Morocco · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-03-31T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Equatorial Guinea · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-03-28T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kyrgyzstan · 5-2 (W)
Equatorial Guinea
- 2026-09-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sierra Leone · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Congo DR · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-09T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Comoros · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-31T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Madagascar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-03-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kyrgyzstan · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Madagascar win, at 46.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.