· Analysis updated 13:30 UTC
Madla vs Staal Jørpeland Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.45 expected goals for Madla and 1.53 for Staal Jørpeland, a combined total of 3.98. That distribution gives Madla the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Madla win
57.9% probability
Expected goals
2.45 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Madla home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Staal Jørpeland away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Madla to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 19% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.45 goals for Madla and 1.53 for Staal Jørpeland, a combined 3.98 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.6%
- 3–17.0%
- 1–17.0%
- 2–26.6%
- 2–05.6%
Recent form
Madla
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Staal Jørpeland · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Varhaug · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Brodd · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Viking · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Åkra · 6-0 (W)
Staal Jørpeland
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hinna · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Varhaug · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Viking II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Brodd · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mandalskameratene · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division - Girone 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Madla | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 32 | 51 |
| 2 | Mandalskameratene | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 23 | 49 |
| 3 | Varhaug | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 42 |
| 4 | Flekkerøy | 25 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 42 |
| 5 | Brodd | 25 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 11 | 39 |
| 6 | Vindbjart | 25 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 18 | 38 |
| 7 | Viking II | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 20 | 35 |
| 8 | Våg | 24 | 11 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 35 |
| 9 | Stabæk II | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | -3 | 34 |
| 10 | Staal Jørpeland | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | -14 | 29 |
| 11 | Odd II | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | -14 | 29 |
| 12 | Hinna | 25 | 7 | 6 | 12 | -23 | 27 |
| 13 | Haugesund II | 25 | 7 | 4 | 14 | -24 | 25 |
| 14 | Åkra | 25 | 5 | 3 | 17 | -44 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Madla win, at 57.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.