Madla vs Stabæk II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.98 expected goals for Madla and 1.30 for Stabæk II, a combined total of 4.28. That distribution gives Madla the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Madla win

71.2% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.98 – 1.30

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Madla home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stabæk II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Madla to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 15% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.98 goals for Madla and 1.30 for Stabæk II, a combined 4.28 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Madla win71%

Draw15%

Stabæk II win14%

Double chance 1X

86%

Double chance 12

85%

Double chance X2

29%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals80%

Over 3.5 goals62%

Both teams to score69%

Correct score

2–18.0%
3–17.9%
2–06.1%
3–06.1%
4–15.9%

Recent form

Madla

2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Haugesund II · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hinna · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Flekkerøy · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Odd II · 4-0 (W)
2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vidar · 3-2 (W)

Stabæk II

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mandalskameratene · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Haugesund II · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Flekkerøy · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-21T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Odd II · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vindbjart · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. Division - Girone 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Madla	23	14	6	3	32	48
2	Mandalskameratene	23	13	4	6	20	43
3	Flekkerøy	23	12	3	8	8	39
4	Vindbjart	23	12	2	9	20	38
5	Varhaug	23	10	6	7	5	36
6	Viking II	23	10	5	8	23	35
7	Brodd	23	10	3	10	2	33
8	Stabæk II	23	10	3	10	-1	33
9	Våg	23	10	2	11	1	32
10	Odd II	23	8	5	10	-10	29
11	Staal Jørpeland	23	7	5	11	-13	26
12	Haugesund II	23	7	4	12	-21	25
13	Hinna	23	6	5	12	-25	23
14	Åkra	23	4	3	16	-41	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Madla win, at 71.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.

A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.