Madla Handelslag Stadion · Analysis updated 14:32 UTC
Madla vs Vidar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.56 expected goals for Madla and 1.14 for Vidar, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives Madla the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Madla win
67.9% probability
Expected goals
2.56 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Madla home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vidar away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Madla to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 17% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.56 goals for Madla and 1.14 for Vidar, a combined 3.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.2%
- 2–08.1%
- 3–17.9%
- 1–17.2%
- 3–06.9%
Recent form
Madla
- 2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Haugesund II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hinna · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Flekkerøy · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Odd II · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vidar · 3-2 (W)
Vidar
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Brattvåg · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Pors Grenland · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mjondalen · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sandviken · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bjarg · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Madla win, at 67.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.