Estadio Fernando Torres · Referee P. Cebollada · Analysis updated 15:58 UTC
Madrid CFF W vs Barcelona W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.02 expected goals for Madrid CFF W and 3.23 for Barcelona W, a combined total of 4.25. That distribution gives Barcelona W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Barcelona W win
79.9% probability
Expected goals
1.02 – 3.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Madrid CFF W home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Barcelona W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Barcelona W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 80%, against 8% / 12% / 80% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.02 goals for Madrid CFF W and 3.23 for Barcelona W, a combined 4.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
20%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
92%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–38.2%
- 0–38.0%
- 1–27.6%
- 0–27.5%
- 1–46.6%
Recent form
Madrid CFF W
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Madrid W · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Alavés W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Espanyol W · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Sevilla W · 1-0 (W)
Barcelona W
- 2026-09-30T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Roma W · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Edf Logrono W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Paris FC W · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Alavés W · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid W · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División Femenina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona W | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 21 |
| 2 | Real Madrid W | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 3 | Athletic Club W | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Atletico Madrid W | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Madrid CFF W | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 13 |
| 6 | Eibar W | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | Granad. Tenerife W | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 8 | Granada | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 9 | Espanyol W | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 10 | Edf Logrono W | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 9 |
| 11 | Real Sociedad W | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 12 | Sevilla W | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Deportivo de La Coruña W | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 14 | FC Levante Badalona W | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Deportivo Alavés W | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 | Valencia W | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -14 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Barcelona W win, at 79.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.