Estadio Fernando Torres · Referee B. Cuesta · Analysis updated 08:32 UTC
Madrid CFF W vs Deportivo Alavés W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Madrid CFF W and 1.02 for Deportivo Alavés W, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Madrid CFF W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Madrid CFF W win
55.1% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.02
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Madrid CFF W home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo Alavés W away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Madrid CFF W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 23% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Madrid CFF W and 1.02 for Deportivo Alavés W, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 1–010.8%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.6%
- 0–16.2%
Recent form
Madrid CFF W
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Madrid W · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Alavés W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Espanyol W · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Sevilla W · 1-0 (W)
Deportivo Alavés W
- 2026-10-25T11:45:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo de La Coruña W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Sevilla W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Espanyol W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Madrid CFF W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Barcelona W · 0-6 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2023-03-04T13:00:00.000Z · Madrid CFF W 5-1 Deportivo Alavés W (Primera División Femenina)
- 2022-09-17T10:00:00.000Z · Madrid CFF W 2-1 Deportivo Alavés W (Primera División Femenina)
- 2022-01-12T17:30:00.000Z · Madrid CFF W 1-2 Deportivo Alavés W (Primera División Femenina)
- 2021-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · Madrid CFF W 0-1 Deportivo Alavés W (Primera División Femenina)
Primera División Femenina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona W | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 21 |
| 2 | Real Madrid W | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 3 | Athletic Club W | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Atletico Madrid W | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Madrid CFF W | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 14 |
| 6 | Eibar W | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 7 | Deportivo de La Coruña W | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Granad. Tenerife W | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 9 | Granada | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 10 | Espanyol W | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | Edf Logrono W | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | Real Sociedad W | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Sevilla W | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 14 | FC Levante Badalona W | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Deportivo Alavés W | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 16 | Valencia W | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -14 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Madrid CFF W win, at 55.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.