Estadio Fernando Torres · Referee B. Cuesta · Analysis updated 10:49 UTC
Madrid CFF W vs Sevilla W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Madrid CFF W and 1.23 for Sevilla W, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Madrid CFF W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.2% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Madrid CFF W home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sevilla W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Madrid CFF W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 27% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Madrid CFF W and 1.23 for Sevilla W, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 1–010.4%
- 0–19.8%
- 2–18.3%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
Madrid CFF W
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Madrid W · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Alavés W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Espanyol W · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Sevilla W · 1-0 (W)
Sevilla W
- 2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo de La Coruña W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-31T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Espanyol W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-26T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Eibar W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Madrid CFF W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-02T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid W · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División Femenina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona W | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 21 |
| 2 | Real Madrid W | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 3 | Athletic Club W | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Atletico Madrid W | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Madrid CFF W | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 13 |
| 6 | Eibar W | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | Granad. Tenerife W | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 8 | Granada | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 9 | Espanyol W | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 10 | Edf Logrono W | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 9 |
| 11 | Real Sociedad W | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 12 | Sevilla W | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Deportivo de La Coruña W | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 14 | FC Levante Badalona W | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Deportivo Alavés W | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 | Valencia W | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -14 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.