· Analysis updated 05:45 UTC
Madureira U20 vs Vasco da Gama U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Madureira U20 and 1.73 for Vasco da Gama U20, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Vasco da Gama U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vasco da Gama U20 win
52.0% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vasco da Gama U20 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vasco da Gama U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 24% / 24% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Madureira U20 and 1.73 for Vasco da Gama U20, a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 54% and both teams to score at 55%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 0–110.2%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–28.8%
- 1–06.5%
Recent form
Madureira U20
Vasco da Gama U20
- 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sampaio Correa FE U20 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Flamengo U20 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-08T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Flamengo U20 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fluminense U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Madureira U20 · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Carioca U20 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fluminense U20 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 29 |
| 2 | Vasco da Gama U20 | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 28 |
| 3 | Flamengo U20 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 27 |
| 4 | Botafogo U20 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 5 | Bangu U20 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | Sampaio Correa FE U20 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 15 |
| 7 | Madureira U20 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 8 | Nova Iguaçu U20 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 9 | Boavista U20 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 9 |
| 10 | Maricá U20 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 8 |
| 11 | Volta Redonda U20 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 8 |
| 12 | Portuguesa RJ U20 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -12 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vasco da Gama U20 win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.