Estadio Municipal de Mafra · Analysis updated 15:20 UTC
Mafra vs Louletano Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Mafra and 1.20 for Louletano, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Mafra the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Mafra win
47.3% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mafra home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Louletano away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mafra to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 25% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Mafra and 1.20 for Louletano, a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 1–09.6%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–07.8%
- 0–17.1%
Recent form
Mafra
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Tirsense · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Oliveirense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Covilha · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Malveira · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lusitano Évora 1911 · 1-2 (L)
Louletano
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitória de Sernache · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Serpa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs União Santarém · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lusitano Évora 1911 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Castrense · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paredes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 1 | CF Os Belenenses | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Leça | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 2 | Atlético CP | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | AD Marco 09 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 3 | Oliveirense | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 4 | Vianense | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Mafra | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 5 | Fafe | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Louletano | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 6 | Varzim | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | União Santarém | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 7 |
| 7 | São João Ver | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 7 | Caldas | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 8 | Pacos Ferreira | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 8 | SC Covilha | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 9 | Trofense | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 9 | Lusitano Évora 1911 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 10 | Guimaraes B | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 10 | Vitória de Sernache | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mafra win, at 47.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.