Estadio Santiago Bueras · Analysis updated 09:12 UTC
Magallanes vs Curico Unido Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for Magallanes and 0.94 for Curico Unido, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Magallanes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Magallanes win
49.2% probability
Expected goals
1.46 – 0.94
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Magallanes home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Curico Unido away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.2%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–09.7%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–09.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.4%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Away | 3.90 | 23.9% | 24.3% | 4.12 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 26.6% | 26.5% | 3.77 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.88 | 49.5% | 49.2% | 2.03 | -0.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Magallanes
- 2026-10-17T15:30:00.000Z · H vs San Luis · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Recoleta · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Curico Unido · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · H vs D. Puerto Montt · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Copiapo · 1-1 (D)
Curico Unido
- 2026-10-03T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Magallanes · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Concepción · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-23T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Concepción · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs San Marcos de Arica · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-08T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Espanola · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-23T23:30:00.000Z · Magallanes 2-1 Curico Unido (Primera B)
- 2025-08-02T16:30:00.000Z · Magallanes 0-0 Curico Unido (Primera B)
- 2025-03-17T23:30:00.000Z · Magallanes 1-1 Curico Unido (Primera B)
- 2024-08-24T16:30:00.000Z · Magallanes 0-0 Curico Unido (Primera B)
- 2024-06-28T00:00:00.000Z · Magallanes 4-0 Curico Unido (Copa Chile)
- 2024-06-23T19:00:00.000Z · Magallanes 0-1 Curico Unido (Copa Chile)
- 2024-04-16T22:00:00.000Z · Magallanes 0-0 Curico Unido (Primera B)
- 2023-11-26T23:30:00.000Z · Magallanes 4-3 Curico Unido (Primera División)
- 2023-05-09T19:30:00.000Z · Magallanes 1-2 Curico Unido (Primera División)
Primera B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cobreloa | 29 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 22 | 54 |
| 2 | San Luis | 29 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 14 | 54 |
| 3 | Santiago Wanderers | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 16 | 50 |
| 4 | Antofagasta | 29 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 25 | 48 |
| 5 | Magallanes | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 46 |
| 6 | San Marcos de Arica | 29 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 43 |
| 7 | Recoleta | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | -2 | 42 |
| 8 | Deportes Copiapo | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 41 |
| 9 | Union Espanola | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | -3 | 39 |
| 10 | Deportes Iquique | 29 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 38 |
| 11 | D. Puerto Montt | 29 | 11 | 5 | 13 | -7 | 38 |
| 12 | Deportes Temuco | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 36 |
| 13 | Curico Unido | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | -20 | 31 |
| 14 | Deportes Santa Cruz | 29 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -14 | 24 |
| 15 | Union San Felipe | 29 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -34 | 23 |
| 16 | Rangers de Talca | 29 | 5 | 6 | 18 | -19 | 21 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Magallanes win, at 49.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.