Magallanes vs D. Puerto Montt Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Magallanes and 1.23 for D. Puerto Montt, a combined total of 2.98. That distribution gives Magallanes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Magallanes win

49.7% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.75 – 1.23

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Magallanes home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
D. Puerto Montt away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 9 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Magallanes win50%

Draw24%

D. Puerto Montt win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–110.9%
2–19.6%
1–08.9%
2–07.8%
1–26.7%

Recent form

Magallanes

2026-10-17T15:30:00.000Z · H vs San Luis · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Recoleta · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-03T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Curico Unido · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · H vs D. Puerto Montt · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-09T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Copiapo · 1-1 (D)

D. Puerto Montt

2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Copiapo · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-29T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Colo Colo · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-26T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Nublense · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-22T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Nublense · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Magallanes · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-05-09T00:00:00.000Z · Magallanes 0-2 D. Puerto Montt (Primera B)
2022-07-03T16:30:00.000Z · Magallanes 0-1 D. Puerto Montt (Primera B)
2022-02-16T21:00:00.000Z · Magallanes 2-0 D. Puerto Montt (Primera B)
2021-09-16T15:30:00.000Z · Magallanes 3-0 D. Puerto Montt (Primera B)
2021-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · Magallanes 1-1 D. Puerto Montt (Primera B)
2021-01-17T13:00:00.000Z · Magallanes 0-1 D. Puerto Montt (Primera B)
2020-02-22T20:30:00.000Z · Magallanes 1-0 D. Puerto Montt (Primera B)
2019-09-28T21:00:00.000Z · Magallanes 1-1 D. Puerto Montt (Primera B)
2019-03-09T20:30:00.000Z · Magallanes 1-1 D. Puerto Montt (Primera B)

Primera B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	San Luis	28	15	8	5	14	53
2	Cobreloa	28	14	9	5	21	51
3	Santiago Wanderers	28	13	8	7	15	47
4	Magallanes	28	13	7	8	4	46
5	Antofagasta	28	12	9	7	21	45
6	Recoleta	28	11	8	9	-2	41
7	San Marcos de Arica	28	10	10	8	6	40
8	Deportes Copiapo	27	11	7	9	2	40
9	Deportes Temuco	28	9	9	10	5	36
10	Union Espanola	27	10	6	11	-3	36
11	Deportes Iquique	28	8	11	9	6	35
12	D. Puerto Montt	28	10	5	13	-9	35
13	Curico Unido	28	7	10	11	-16	31
14	Deportes Santa Cruz	28	4	11	13	-14	23
15	Union San Felipe	28	5	8	15	-32	23
16	Rangers de Talca	28	5	6	17	-18	21

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Magallanes win, at 49.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.