· Analysis updated 13:17 UTC
Magdeburg U19 vs BAK 07 U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.23 expected goals for Magdeburg U19 and 1.14 for BAK 07 U19, a combined total of 3.37. That distribution gives Magdeburg U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Magdeburg U19 win
61.9% probability
Expected goals
2.23 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Magdeburg U19 home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
BAK 07 U19 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.7%
- 1–18.7%
- 2–08.5%
- 1–07.6%
- 3–17.2%
Recent form
Magdeburg U19
- 2026-10-10T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Hansa Rostock U19 · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs BAK 07 U19 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Mainz 05 U19 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV U19 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Holstein Kiel U19 · 2-0 (W)
BAK 07 U19
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hansa Rostock U19 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV U19 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Magdeburg U19 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Holstein Kiel U19 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Werder Bremen U19 · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · Magdeburg U19 3-1 BAK 07 U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · Magdeburg U19 2-1 BAK 07 U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
- 2025-11-01T12:00:00.000Z · Magdeburg U19 1-2 BAK 07 U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
- 2025-08-24T10:30:00.000Z · Magdeburg U19 1-2 BAK 07 U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
- 2024-09-28T11:00:00.000Z · Magdeburg U19 2-3 BAK 07 U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
- 2024-08-04T11:00:00.000Z · Magdeburg U19 3-5 BAK 07 U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
- 2022-11-19T10:00:00.000Z · Magdeburg U19 2-0 BAK 07 U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Magdeburg U19 win, at 61.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.