Avnet Arena · Analysis updated 19:28 UTC
Magdeburg W vs Hamburger SV W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Magdeburg W and 1.25 for Hamburger SV W, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Magdeburg W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.7% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hamburger SV W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Magdeburg W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 25% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Magdeburg W and 1.25 for Hamburger SV W, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 53% and both teams to score at 56%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 1–09.5%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–17.8%
- 1–27.4%
Recent form
Magdeburg W
- 2026-08-16T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Holstein Kiel W · 3-0 (W)
- 2025-09-28T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV W · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-08-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Gütersloh W · 2-0 (W)
- 2024-08-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV W · 0-2 (L)
Hamburger SV W
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Koln W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T11:45:00.000Z · A vs VfL Wolfsburg W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Meppen W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Nürnberg W · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Werder Bremen W · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-09-28T12:00:00.000Z · Magdeburg W 0-3 Hamburger SV W (DFB Pokal - Women)
- 2024-08-18T13:00:00.000Z · Magdeburg W 0-2 Hamburger SV W (DFB Pokal - Women)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.