Peter Mokaba Stadium · Analysis updated 05:59 UTC
Magesi vs Hungry Lions Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Magesi and 0.77 for Hungry Lions, a combined total of 1.93. That distribution gives Magesi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Magesi win
45.1% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Magesi home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hungry Lions away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Magesi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 31% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Magesi and 0.77 for Hungry Lions, a combined 1.93 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.9%
- 0–014.5%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–111.1%
- 2–09.8%
Recent form
Magesi
- 2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Venda FC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs NWU FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hungry Lions · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Highbury · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Leicesterfield · 3-1 (W)
Hungry Lions
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Magesi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs The Bees · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Cape Town City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-28T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Orbit College · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gomora United FC · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1st Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magesi | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| 2 | Casric Stars | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 3 | Cape Town City | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Hungry Lions | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 5 | Upington City | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Lerumo Lions | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Highbury | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Gomora United FC | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Hope FC | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Leicesterfield | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Midlands Wanderers | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | University of Pretoria | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | NWU FC | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Orbit College | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 15 | The Bees | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -7 | 3 |
| 16 | Venda FC | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Magesi win, at 45.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.