· Analysis updated 15:10 UTC
Maghreb Fès vs ASEC Mimosas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Maghreb Fès and 0.84 for ASEC Mimosas, a combined total of 2.32. That distribution gives Maghreb Fès the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Maghreb Fès win
52.5% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Maghreb Fès home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
ASEC Mimosas away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Maghreb Fès to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 26% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Maghreb Fès and 0.84 for ASEC Mimosas, a combined 2.32 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.6%
- 1–112.2%
- 2–010.8%
- 0–09.8%
- 2–19.0%
Recent form
Maghreb Fès
- 2026-10-08T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Raja Casablanca · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hassania Agadir · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs CR Khemis Zemamra · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Rahimo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Rahimo · 4-1 (W)
ASEC Mimosas
- 2026-10-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Maghreb Fès · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Maghreb Fès · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs AFAD · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Stella · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Yamoussoukro · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Maghreb Fès win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.