· Referee M. El Houidri · Analysis updated 15:11 UTC
Maghreb Fès vs Raja Casablanca Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.02 expected goals for Maghreb Fès and 0.87 for Raja Casablanca, a combined total of 1.88. That distribution gives Maghreb Fès the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 29% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.0% probability
Expected goals
1.02 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Maghreb Fès home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Raja Casablanca away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Maghreb Fès to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 32% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.02 goals for Maghreb Fès and 0.87 for Raja Casablanca, a combined 1.88 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.5%
- 0–015.2%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–113.2%
- 2–07.9%
Recent form
Maghreb Fès
- 2026-10-08T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Raja Casablanca · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hassania Agadir · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs CR Khemis Zemamra · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Rahimo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Rahimo · 4-1 (W)
Raja Casablanca
- 2026-07-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympique Safi · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Hassania Agadir · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-28T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ittihad Tanger · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Yacoub El Mansour · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-21T14:00:00.000Z · H vs CODM Meknès · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Botola Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CODM Meknès | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 2 | Kawkab Marrakech | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 3 | Wydad AC | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 4 | Hassania Agadir | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 5 | Ittihad Tanger | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Maghreb Fès | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Difaa EL Jadida | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | UTS Rabat | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | Widad Témara | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 10 | Raja Casablanca | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | FUS Rabat | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | FAR Rabat | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 13 | Amal Tiznit | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 14 | Renaissance Berkane | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 15 | Moghreb Tetouan | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -6 | 3 |
| 16 | CR Khemis Zemamra | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 29%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.