· Analysis updated 09:46 UTC
Magpies vs Lincoln Red Imps FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Magpies and 1.29 for Lincoln Red Imps FC, a combined total of 2.79. That distribution gives Magpies the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.2% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.29
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Magpies home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lincoln Red Imps FC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Magpies to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 25% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Magpies and 1.29 for Lincoln Red Imps FC, a combined 2.79 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 1–09.2%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–17.9%
- 1–27.7%
Recent form
Magpies
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs College 1975 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Hound Dogs · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Europa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lynx · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lions Gibraltar · 1-1 (D)
Lincoln Red Imps FC
- 2026-10-18T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Lynx · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Brann · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Europa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Mons Calpe · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Europa Point · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magpies | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 11 |
| 2 | St Joseph S Fc | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 |
| 3 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| 4 | Mons Calpe | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Glacis United | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Lions Gibraltar | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 7 | Europa Point | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 7 |
| 8 | Europa | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 9 | College 1975 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Hound Dogs | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -9 | 1 |
| 11 | Lynx | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -11 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.