· Analysis updated 22:38 UTC
Magpies vs St Joseph S Fc Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Magpies and 2.82 for St Joseph S Fc, a combined total of 4.27. That distribution gives St Joseph S Fc the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
St Joseph S Fc win
66.0% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 2.82
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Magpies home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
St Joseph S Fc away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates St Joseph S Fc to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 18% / 16% / 66% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Magpies and 2.82 for St Joseph S Fc, a combined 4.27 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
34%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.0%
- 1–37.6%
- 2–25.8%
- 1–15.7%
- 0–25.6%
Recent form
Magpies
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs College 1975 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Hound Dogs · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Europa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lynx · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lions Gibraltar · 1-1 (D)
St Joseph S Fc
- 2026-10-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Hound Dogs · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Lions Gibraltar · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Lynx · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Europa · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Mons Calpe · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magpies | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 11 |
| 2 | St Joseph S Fc | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 |
| 3 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| 4 | Mons Calpe | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Glacis United | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Lions Gibraltar | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 7 | Europa Point | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 7 |
| 8 | Europa | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 9 | College 1975 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Hound Dogs | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -9 | 1 |
| 11 | Lynx | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -11 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is St Joseph S Fc win, at 66.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.