· Analysis updated 14:51 UTC
Maguary PE vs Sousa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.99 expected goals for Maguary PE and 0.37 for Sousa, a combined total of 1.37. That distribution gives Maguary PE the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 36%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 16% for over 2.5 goals and 20% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 26%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Maguary PE win
50.5% probability
Expected goals
0.99 – 0.37
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Maguary PE home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Maguary PE to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 36% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.99 goals for Maguary PE and 0.37 for Sousa, a combined 1.37 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 16% and both teams to score at 20%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 26%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
64%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–025.5%
- 1–025.3%
- 2–012.6%
- 0–19.5%
- 1–19.5%
Recent form
Maguary PE
- 2026-07-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Iguatu · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Iguatu · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-06-27T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Piauí · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-21T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Piauí · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs ABC · 0-1 (L)
Sousa
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Maguary PE win, at 50.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 20% and over 2.5 goals at 16%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.