· Analysis updated 15:45 UTC
Maharlika vs Manila Digger Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Maharlika and 2.85 for Manila Digger, a combined total of 3.88. That distribution gives Manila Digger the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Manila Digger win
74.8% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 2.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Manila Digger to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 11% / 14% / 75% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Maharlika and 2.85 for Manila Digger, a combined 3.88 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 74% and both teams to score at 61%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 75% with high confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
25%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
89%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.6%
- 0–28.4%
- 1–38.2%
- 0–37.9%
- 1–16.1%
Recent form
Maharlika
Manila Digger
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
PFL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manila Digger | 20 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 90 | 54 |
| 2 | Taguig | 20 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 75 | 52 |
| 3 | Dynamic Herb Cebu | 20 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 49 | 42 |
| 4 | Kaya | 20 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 55 | 41 |
| 5 | Stallion | 20 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 36 | 33 |
| 6 | Davao Aguilas | 20 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 32 |
| 7 | Maharlika | 20 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 29 |
| 8 | Garelli United | 20 | 5 | 0 | 15 | -42 | 15 |
| 9 | Tuloy | 20 | 3 | 2 | 15 | -92 | 11 |
| 10 | Mendiola | 20 | 2 | 1 | 17 | -86 | 7 |
| 11 | Philippine Army | 20 | 0 | 2 | 18 | -110 | 2 |
| 1 | Maharlika | 24 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 39 |
| 2 | Garelli United | 24 | 7 | 1 | 16 | -34 | 22 |
| 3 | Tuloy | 24 | 5 | 3 | 16 | -87 | 18 |
| 4 | Mendiola | 24 | 3 | 2 | 19 | -89 | 11 |
| 5 | Philippine Army | 24 | 0 | 2 | 22 | -125 | 2 |
| 1 | Manila Digger | 26 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 96 | 63 |
| 2 | Taguig | 25 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 76 | 58 |
| 3 | Kaya | 25 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 55 | 48 |
| 4 | Dynamic Herb Cebu | 25 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 49 | 48 |
| 5 | Davao Aguilas | 25 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 40 |
| 6 | Stallion | 26 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 29 | 37 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Manila Digger win, at 74.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.