Maharlika vs Philippine Army Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 4.50 expected goals for Maharlika and 0.76 for Philippine Army, a combined total of 5.26. That distribution gives Maharlika the largest share of the 1X2 market at 93%, with the draw at 5%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 4–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 93% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Maharlika win

93.1% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

4.50 – 0.76

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Philippine Army away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Maharlika to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 93%, against 93% / 5% / 2% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.50 goals for Maharlika and 0.76 for Philippine Army, a combined 5.26 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 86% and both teams to score at 50%, with 4–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Match result (1X2)

Maharlika win93%

Draw5%

Philippine Army win2%

Double chance 1X

98%

Double chance 12

95%

Double chance X2

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals93%

Over 2.5 goals86%

Over 3.5 goals73%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

4–08.9%
5–08.0%
3–07.9%
4–16.7%
5–16.1%

Recent form

Maharlika

Philippine Army

2026-05-20T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Garelli United · 1-8 (L)
2026-05-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Mendiola · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-06T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Maharlika · 2-5 (L)
2026-05-02T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Tuloy · 1-5 (L)
2026-04-29T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Mendiola · 2-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

PFL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manila Digger	20	17	3	0	90	54
2	Taguig	20	17	1	2	75	52
3	Dynamic Herb Cebu	20	13	3	4	49	42
4	Kaya	20	13	2	5	55	41
5	Stallion	20	9	6	5	36	33
6	Davao Aguilas	20	10	2	8	17	32
7	Maharlika	20	9	2	9	8	29
8	Garelli United	20	5	0	15	-42	15
9	Tuloy	20	3	2	15	-92	11
10	Mendiola	20	2	1	17	-86	7
11	Philippine Army	20	0	2	18	-110	2
1	Maharlika	24	12	3	9	13	39
2	Garelli United	24	7	1	16	-34	22
3	Tuloy	24	5	3	16	-87	18
4	Mendiola	24	3	2	19	-89	11
5	Philippine Army	24	0	2	22	-125	2
1	Manila Digger	26	19	6	1	96	63
2	Taguig	25	18	4	3	76	58
3	Kaya	25	15	3	7	55	48
4	Dynamic Herb Cebu	25	14	6	5	49	48
5	Davao Aguilas	25	12	4	9	17	40
6	Stallion	26	9	10	7	29	37

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Maharlika win, at 93.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.

A 93% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.