York Road · Analysis updated 16:54 UTC
Maidenhead vs Farnborough Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.65 expected goals for Maidenhead and 1.10 for Farnborough, a combined total of 1.75. That distribution gives Farnborough the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Farnborough win
46.2% probability
Expected goals
0.65 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Maidenhead home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Farnborough away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–119.1%
- 0–017.4%
- 1–112.4%
- 1–011.3%
- 0–210.5%
Recent form
Maidenhead
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chesham United · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ebbsfleet United · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Billericay Town · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Torquay · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dover · 3-0 (W)
Farnborough
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Billericay Town · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Walton & Hersham · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Uxbridge · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Uxbridge · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dover · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · Maidenhead 1-1 Farnborough (National League - South)
- 2026-02-07T15:00:00.000Z · Maidenhead 2-2 Farnborough (National League - South)
- 2025-10-25T14:00:00.000Z · Maidenhead 0-1 Farnborough (National League - South)
- 2024-08-03T14:00:00.000Z · Maidenhead 1-1 Farnborough (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-07-30T14:00:00.000Z · Maidenhead 0-1 Farnborough (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2021-07-31T14:30:00.000Z · Maidenhead 1-1 Farnborough (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2015-01-12T19:45:00.000Z · Maidenhead 0-1 Farnborough (FA Trophy)
- 2015-01-10T15:00:00.000Z · Maidenhead 2-2 Farnborough (FA Trophy)
- 2011-10-05T18:45:00.000Z · Maidenhead 3-2 Farnborough (FA Cup)
- 2011-10-01T14:00:00.000Z · Maidenhead 1-1 Farnborough (FA Cup)
National League - South table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maidstone Utd | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 25 |
| 2 | Ebbsfleet United | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 16 | 22 |
| 3 | Salisbury | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 21 |
| 4 | Billericay Town | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 21 |
| 5 | Truro City | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 21 |
| 6 | Tonbridge Angels | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 20 |
| 7 | Dagenham & Redbridge | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 20 |
| 8 | Weston-super-Mare | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 9 | Dover | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 10 | Dorking Wanderers | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 17 |
| 11 | Farnham Town | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| 12 | Folkestone Invicta | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 16 |
| 13 | Torquay | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 14 | Horsham | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 15 | Chelmsford City | 10 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 16 | Hemel Hempstead Town | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 17 | Farnborough | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 14 |
| 18 | Maidenhead | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 13 |
| 19 | Chesham United | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 10 |
| 20 | Braintree | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -9 | 10 |
| 21 | AFC Totton | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -14 | 10 |
| 22 | Hampton & Richmond | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -15 | 8 |
| 23 | Walton & Hersham | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -17 | 8 |
| 24 | Slough Town | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | -19 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Farnborough win, at 46.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.