Maidenhead vs Horsham Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Maidenhead and 1.20 for Horsham, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Maidenhead the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

65.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.30 – 1.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Maidenhead home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Horsham away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Maidenhead to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 27% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Maidenhead and 1.20 for Horsham, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Maidenhead win39%

Draw27%

Horsham win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–112.8%
1–010.7%
0–19.9%
2–18.3%
0–08.2%

Recent form

Maidenhead

2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Maidstone Utd · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tonbridge Angels · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chesham United · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ebbsfleet United · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Billericay Town · 2-2 (D)

Horsham

2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Ebbsfleet United · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Slough Town · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Maidstone Utd · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Plymouth Parkway · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelmsford City · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

National League - South table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	12	8	1	3	9	25
2	Ebbsfleet United	10	6	4	0	16	22
3	Salisbury	11	6	3	2	12	21
4	Billericay Town	11	6	3	2	11	21
5	Truro City	11	6	3	2	9	21
6	Tonbridge Angels	12	6	2	4	10	20
7	Dagenham & Redbridge	12	6	2	4	1	20
8	Weston-super-Mare	12	5	3	4	3	18
9	Dover	11	5	3	3	1	18
10	Dorking Wanderers	11	4	5	2	6	17
11	Farnham Town	11	5	2	4	1	17
12	Folkestone Invicta	12	4	4	4	4	16
13	Torquay	11	4	4	3	3	16
14	Horsham	12	3	6	3	-1	15
15	Chelmsford City	10	2	8	0	6	14
16	Hemel Hempstead Town	12	3	5	4	-1	14
17	Farnborough	11	4	2	5	-7	14
18	Maidenhead	12	3	4	5	-1	13
19	Chesham United	11	3	1	7	-8	10
20	Braintree	11	3	1	7	-9	10
21	AFC Totton	12	3	1	8	-14	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	11	2	2	7	-15	8
23	Walton & Hersham	11	2	2	7	-17	8
24	Slough Town	12	1	1	10	-19	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.