· Analysis updated 12:25 UTC
Maidstone Utd vs Ashford United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Maidstone Utd and 1.45 for Ashford United, a combined total of 3.21. That distribution gives Maidstone Utd the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Maidstone Utd win
45.1% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Maidstone Utd home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Ashford United away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Maidstone Utd to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 23% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Maidstone Utd and 1.45 for Ashford United, a combined 3.21 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–27.5%
- 1–07.1%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Maidstone Utd
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Torquay · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Maidenhead · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Horsham · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Truro City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cray Wanderers · 0-2 (L)
Ashford United
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ascot United · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Crowborough Athletic · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-01T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Dartford · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Maidstone Utd · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hassocks · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · Maidstone Utd 4-0 Ashford United (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Maidstone Utd win, at 45.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.