Mainz 05 U19 vs Augsburg U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.09 expected goals for Mainz 05 U19 and 1.22 for Augsburg U19, a combined total of 3.31. That distribution gives Mainz 05 U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Mainz 05 U19 win

57.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

2.09 – 1.22

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Mainz 05 U19 home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Augsburg U19 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Mainz 05 U19 win57%

Draw21%

Augsburg U19 win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

43%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals42%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

2–19.7%
1–19.3%
2–08.0%
1–07.6%
3–16.8%

Recent form

Mainz 05 U19

2026-08-23T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Wehen Wiesbaden U19 · 5-1 (W)
2026-08-16T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaiserslautern U19 · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-09T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Köln U19 · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-02T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Augsburg U19 · 4-4 (D)
2026-05-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hoffenheim U19 · 1-2 (L)

Augsburg U19

2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Hoffenheim U19 · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sandhausen U19 · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-23T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Stuttgarter K'rs U19 · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Ulm U19 · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-15T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Karlsruher SC U19 · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-02T09:00:00.000Z · Mainz 05 U19 4-4 Augsburg U19 (DFB Junioren Pokal)
2026-05-03T09:00:00.000Z · Mainz 05 U19 3-0 Augsburg U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
2024-03-03T10:00:00.000Z · Mainz 05 U19 2-0 Augsburg U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
2023-09-24T09:00:00.000Z · Mainz 05 U19 2-1 Augsburg U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
2023-05-21T09:00:00.000Z · Mainz 05 U19 5-1 Augsburg U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
2022-12-04T10:00:00.000Z · Mainz 05 U19 1-1 Augsburg U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
2022-02-05T10:00:00.000Z · Mainz 05 U19 5-3 Augsburg U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
2019-11-02T10:00:00.000Z · Mainz 05 U19 2-0 Augsburg U19 (U19 Bundesliga)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Mainz 05 U19 win, at 57.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.