· Analysis updated 06:50 UTC
Mainz 05 U19 vs FSV Frankfurt U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.63 expected goals for Mainz 05 U19 and 1.00 for FSV Frankfurt U19, a combined total of 3.63. That distribution gives Mainz 05 U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mainz 05 U19 win
72.0% probability
Expected goals
2.63 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mainz 05 U19 home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FSV Frankfurt U19 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mainz 05 U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 72% / 16% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.63 goals for Mainz 05 U19 and 1.00 for FSV Frankfurt U19, a combined 3.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
28%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–09.2%
- 2–19.2%
- 3–08.0%
- 3–18.0%
- 1–07.0%
Recent form
Mainz 05 U19
- 2026-08-23T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Wehen Wiesbaden U19 · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-16T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaiserslautern U19 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-09T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Köln U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-02T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Augsburg U19 · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-05-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hoffenheim U19 · 1-2 (L)
FSV Frankfurt U19
- 2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Köln U19 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Darmstadt 98 U19 · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-09T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Köln U19 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-23T11:00:00.000Z · H vs MSV Duisburg U19 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-17T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Osnabrück U19 · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mainz 05 U19 win, at 72.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.