· Analysis updated 15:27 UTC
Mainz 05 U19 vs Kaiserslautern U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Mainz 05 U19 and 1.18 for Kaiserslautern U19, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives Mainz 05 U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.3% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mainz 05 U19 home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mainz 05 U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Mainz 05 U19 and 1.18 for Kaiserslautern U19, a combined 2.68 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 1–010.3%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–18.1%
- 2–07.8%
Recent form
Mainz 05 U19
- 2026-08-23T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Wehen Wiesbaden U19 · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-16T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaiserslautern U19 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-09T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Köln U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-02T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Augsburg U19 · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-05-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hoffenheim U19 · 1-2 (L)
Kaiserslautern U19
- 2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Holstein Kiel U19 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Köln U19 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-16T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Mainz 05 U19 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-01T12:05:00.000Z · A vs RB Leipzig U19 · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-05-02T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Energie Cottbus U19 · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.