· Analysis updated 04:43 UTC
Mainz 05 W vs Nürnberg W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Mainz 05 W and 2.38 for Nürnberg W, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives Nürnberg W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Nürnberg W win
56.5% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 2.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mainz 05 W home form
0 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Nürnberg W away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nürnberg W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 24% / 19% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Mainz 05 W and 2.38 for Nürnberg W, a combined 3.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.7%
- 1–17.3%
- 1–36.9%
- 2–26.6%
- 0–25.7%
Recent form
Mainz 05 W
- 2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs 1899 Hoffenheim W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs VfL Wolfsburg W · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs RB Leipzig W · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ingolstadt W · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Frankfurt W · 2-3 (L)
Nürnberg W
- 2026-10-25T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bayer Leverkusen W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Union Berlin W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs 1899 Hoffenheim W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Buntentor W · 10-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV W · 1-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Frauen Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich W | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 24 |
| 2 | VfL Wolfsburg W | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 21 |
| 3 | Eintracht Frankfurt W | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | Werder Bremen W | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen W | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 6 | FC Koln W | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | RB Leipzig W | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 8 | Union Berlin W | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 9 | SC Freiburg W | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 10 | 1899 Hoffenheim W | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Stuttgart W | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -12 | 8 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV W | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 13 | Nürnberg W | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 5 |
| 14 | Mainz 05 W | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -23 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nürnberg W win, at 56.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.