· Analysis updated 02:33 UTC
Mainz 05 W vs Werder Bremen W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Mainz 05 W and 1.99 for Werder Bremen W, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives Werder Bremen W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Werder Bremen W win
50.4% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.99
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mainz 05 W home form
0 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Werder Bremen W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Werder Bremen W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 28% / 22% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Mainz 05 W and 1.99 for Werder Bremen W, a combined 3.43 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.3%
- 1–29.2%
- 2–16.7%
- 2–26.6%
- 0–16.5%
Recent form
Mainz 05 W
- 2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs 1899 Hoffenheim W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs VfL Wolfsburg W · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs RB Leipzig W · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ingolstadt W · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Frankfurt W · 2-3 (L)
Werder Bremen W
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Freiburg W · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-02T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Bayer Leverkusen W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bochum W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Stuttgart W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV W · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-24T16:00:00.000Z · Mainz 05 W 1-2 Werder Bremen W (Frauen Bundesliga)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Werder Bremen W win, at 50.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.