Maitland vs Adamstown Rosebuds Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Maitland and 1.38 for Adamstown Rosebuds, a combined total of 2.97. That distribution gives Maitland the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

67.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.60 – 1.38

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Maitland home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Adamstown Rosebuds away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Maitland win43%

Draw24%

Adamstown Rosebuds win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–111.2%
2–19.0%
1–08.2%
1–27.7%
0–17.0%

Recent form

Maitland

2026-09-13T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Weston Bears · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-06T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Broadmeadow Magic · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-30T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Edgeworth Eagles · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-23T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Weston Bears · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-16T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Edgeworth Eagles · 2-1 (W)

Adamstown Rosebuds

2026-08-16T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Belmont Swansea · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Weston Bears · 2-4 (L)
2026-08-08T06:30:00.000Z · H vs Cooks Hill United · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-01T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Valentine · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-11T06:30:00.000Z · A vs Maitland · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-07-11T06:30:00.000Z · Maitland 3-1 Adamstown Rosebuds (Northern NSW NPL)
2026-04-11T08:00:00.000Z · Maitland 5-2 Adamstown Rosebuds (Northern NSW NPL)
2025-05-31T08:30:00.000Z · Maitland 3-1 Adamstown Rosebuds (Northern NSW NPL)
2025-02-28T09:00:00.000Z · Maitland 1-1 Adamstown Rosebuds (Northern NSW NPL)
2024-06-22T04:30:00.000Z · Maitland 7-2 Adamstown Rosebuds (Northern NSW NPL)
2024-03-23T06:00:00.000Z · Maitland 1-1 Adamstown Rosebuds (Northern NSW NPL)
2023-08-13T04:30:00.000Z · Maitland 0-1 Adamstown Rosebuds (Northern NSW NPL)
2023-05-13T05:30:00.000Z · Maitland 5-0 Adamstown Rosebuds (Northern NSW NPL)
2022-07-13T10:00:00.000Z · Maitland 5-3 Adamstown Rosebuds (Northern NSW NPL)
2022-04-05T08:00:00.000Z · Maitland 6-0 Adamstown Rosebuds (Northern NSW NPL)

Northern NSW NPL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Broadmeadow Magic	22	15	4	3	36	49
2	Maitland	22	13	3	6	8	42
3	Weston Bears	22	12	5	5	15	41
4	Edgeworth Eagles	22	11	6	5	10	39
5	Belmont Swansea	22	10	5	7	3	35
6	Cooks Hill United	22	9	6	7	7	33
7	Valentine	22	7	5	10	-17	26
8	Lambton Jaffas	22	7	4	11	5	25
9	Adamstown Rosebuds	22	6	6	10	-11	24
10	Hamilton Olympic	22	5	6	11	-1	21
11	Kahibah	22	6	2	14	-18	20
12	Charlestown City Blues	22	4	2	16	-37	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.