Majosi vs Kaposvar Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Majosi and 2.73 for Kaposvar, a combined total of 4.25. That distribution gives Kaposvar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Kaposvar win

62.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.53 – 2.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Majosi home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kaposvar away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 7 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Majosi win20%

Draw17%

Kaposvar win63%

Double chance 1X

37%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

80%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals79%

Over 3.5 goals61%

Both teams to score73%

Correct score

1–28.1%
1–37.3%
2–26.2%
1–15.9%
2–35.6%

Recent form

Majosi

2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kaposvar · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nyiregyhaza · 1-8 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Iváncsa · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-30T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Érdi VSE · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Ferencváros II · 0-5 (L)

Kaposvar

2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Sárbogárd · 7-0 (W)
2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Iváncsa · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Érdi VSE · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ferencváros II · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Majosi · 1-4 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · Majosi 4-1 Kaposvar (NB III - Southwest)
2026-03-29T14:00:00.000Z · Majosi 0-3 Kaposvar (NB III - Southwest)
2025-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · Majosi 4-5 Kaposvar (NB III - Southwest)
2024-11-17T12:00:00.000Z · Majosi 1-1 Kaposvar (NB III - Southwest)
2024-07-28T15:30:00.000Z · Majosi 1-1 Kaposvar (NB III - Southwest)
2024-04-14T14:00:00.000Z · Majosi 0-4 Kaposvar (NB III - Southwest)
2023-10-01T13:00:00.000Z · Majosi 0-1 Kaposvar (NB III - Southwest)

NB III - Southwest table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Pécsi MFC	12	11	1	0	30	34
2	Kaposvar	11	7	1	3	17	22
3	Ferencváros II	11	6	3	2	11	21
4	Dunaharaszti MTK	12	6	2	4	4	20
5	Iváncsa	11	6	0	5	3	18
6	Majosi	11	5	3	3	1	18
7	Budafoki LC	11	5	2	4	3	17
8	PTE-PEAC	11	4	4	3	1	16
9	MTK Budapest II	10	5	0	5	6	15
10	Érdi VSE	11	4	3	4	0	15
11	Siofok	11	4	2	5	3	14
12	Budaörs	11	3	3	5	-13	12
13	Paksi SE II	11	1	4	6	-4	7
14	Sárbogárd	11	1	2	8	-22	5
15	Szekszárd	11	0	0	11	-40	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Kaposvar win, at 62.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.