· Analysis updated 15:32 UTC
Makedonija GjP vs Osogovo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for Makedonija GjP and 0.58 for Osogovo, a combined total of 1.38. That distribution gives Makedonija GjP the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 38%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 16% for over 2.5 goals and 24% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 25%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
75.9% probability
Expected goals
0.80 – 0.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Makedonija GjP home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Osogovo away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 38% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.80 goals for Makedonija GjP and 0.58 for Osogovo, a combined 1.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
62%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–025.3%
- 1–020.2%
- 0–114.5%
- 1–111.6%
- 2–08.1%
Recent form
Makedonija GjP
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Belasica · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Ohrid · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Shkupi 1927 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:45:00.000Z · H vs FK Rabotnicki · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kamjani · 1-0 (W)
Osogovo
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Akademija Pandev · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pelister · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gorno Lisiče · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Teteks · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kozuv Gevgelija · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohrid | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 22 |
| 2 | Pelister | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 21 |
| 3 | FK Rabotnicki | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Akademija Pandev | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 15 |
| 5 | Kamjani | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 6 | Teteks | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Belasica | 9 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Makedonija GjP | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 9 | Kozuv Gevgelija | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 10 |
| 10 | Detonit Plachkovica | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 11 | Novaci | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Gorno Lisiče | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Osogovo | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 6 |
| 14 | Shkupi 1927 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | -28 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 75.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 24% and over 2.5 goals at 16%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.