· Analysis updated 15:59 UTC
Makedonikos Neapolis vs Poseidon Nea Michaniona Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.31 expected goals for Makedonikos Neapolis and 1.90 for Poseidon Nea Michaniona, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Poseidon Nea Michaniona the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Poseidon Nea Michaniona win
51.2% probability
Expected goals
1.31 – 1.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Makedonikos Neapolis home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Poseidon Nea Michaniona away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Poseidon Nea Michaniona to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 26% / 22% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.31 goals for Makedonikos Neapolis and 1.90 for Poseidon Nea Michaniona, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–17.7%
- 0–27.3%
- 2–16.6%
Recent form
Makedonikos Neapolis
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Akrites Sykeon · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs PAOK II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-22T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kavala · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-04-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kampaniakos Chalastra · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-04-08T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Nestos Chrisoupolis · 0-2 (L)
Poseidon Nea Michaniona
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Akrites Sykeon · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs PAO Kristoni · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-04-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Doxa Dramas · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aetos Orfani · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-01T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Iraklis Therm. · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Poseidon Nea Michaniona | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Finikas Polichnis | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Mpam | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| 4 | Iraklis Therm. | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| 5 | Agiou Nikolaou | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 6 | Makedonikos Neapolis | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 7 | Polykastrou | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | Akrites Sykeon | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 9 | Panedessaikos | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 10 | Kilkisiakos | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 11 | PAO Kristoni | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Poseidon Nea Michaniona win, at 51.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.