Malaga vs Celta Vigo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.55 expected goals for Malaga and 1.20 for Celta Vigo, a combined total of 1.75. That distribution gives Celta Vigo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Celta Vigo win

52.1% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.55 – 1.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Malaga home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Celta Vigo away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Malaga win17%

Draw31%

Celta Vigo win52%

Double chance 1X

48%

Double chance 12

69%

Double chance X2

83%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals52%

Over 2.5 goals26%

Over 3.5 goals10%

Both teams to score30%

Correct score

0–120.9%
0–017.4%
0–212.5%
1–111.5%
1–09.6%

Recent form

Malaga

2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Getafe · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-17T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Villarreal · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Celta Vigo · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Levante · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid · 0-4 (L)

Celta Vigo

2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Elche · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing Santander · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-16T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Omonia Nicosia · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Malaga · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Getafe · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · Malaga 1-1 Celta Vigo (La Liga)
2018-03-18T17:30:00.000Z · Malaga 0-0 Celta Vigo (La Liga)
2017-10-29T19:45:00.000Z · Malaga 2-1 Celta Vigo (La Liga)
2017-05-07T18:45:00.000Z · Malaga 3-0 Celta Vigo (La Liga)
2017-01-08T17:30:00.000Z · Malaga 1-3 Celta Vigo (La Liga)
2016-05-08T15:00:00.000Z · Malaga 0-1 Celta Vigo (La Liga)
2016-01-02T21:05:00.000Z · Malaga 2-0 Celta Vigo (La Liga)
2015-04-29T18:00:00.000Z · Malaga 0-1 Celta Vigo (La Liga)
2014-12-13T21:00:00.000Z · Malaga 1-0 Celta Vigo (La Liga)
2014-03-21T20:00:00.000Z · Malaga 2-0 Celta Vigo (La Liga)

La Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	8	8	0	0	27	24
2	Atletico Madrid	8	6	1	1	10	19
3	Real Betis	8	6	1	1	5	19
4	Real Madrid	8	6	0	2	11	18
5	Sevilla	8	4	2	2	1	14
6	Real Sociedad	8	4	1	3	-3	13
7	Alaves	8	3	2	3	4	11
8	Deportivo La Coruna	8	2	4	2	1	10
9	Celta Vigo	8	1	5	2	2	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	1	8
11	Villarreal	8	2	2	4	0	8
12	Espanyol	8	2	2	4	0	8
13	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	-5	8
14	Getafe	8	2	2	4	-6	8
15	Racing Santander	8	2	2	4	-10	8
16	Osasuna	8	2	2	4	-10	8
17	Levante	7	1	3	3	-4	6
18	Elche	8	1	3	4	-6	6
19	Valencia	8	1	2	5	-9	5
20	Malaga	8	0	4	4	-9	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Celta Vigo win, at 52.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.

A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.