Malaga vs Elche Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Malaga and 1.73 for Elche, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Elche the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Elche win

49.7% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.20 – 1.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Malaga home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Elche away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Malaga win27%

Draw24%

Elche win50%

Double chance 1X

50%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

73%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.1%
1–29.6%
0–19.3%
0–28.0%
2–16.7%

Recent form

Malaga

2026-10-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Espanyol · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Getafe · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-17T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Villarreal · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Celta Vigo · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Levante · 0-0 (D)

Elche

2026-10-17T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Villarreal · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Celta Vigo · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Espanyol · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-15T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Athletic Club · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2025-05-25T16:30:00.000Z · Malaga 0-2 Elche (Segunda División)
2024-09-28T19:00:00.000Z · Malaga 0-3 Elche (Segunda División)
2020-02-01T20:00:00.000Z · Malaga 0-2 Elche (Segunda División)
2019-11-24T15:00:00.000Z · Malaga 3-3 Elche (Segunda División)
2019-06-08T18:30:00.000Z · Malaga 3-0 Elche (Segunda División)
2018-10-19T19:00:00.000Z · Malaga 0-2 Elche (Segunda División)
2015-05-03T19:00:00.000Z · Malaga 1-2 Elche (La Liga)
2014-12-21T18:00:00.000Z · Malaga 2-1 Elche (La Liga)
2014-05-03T16:00:00.000Z · Malaga 0-1 Elche (La Liga)
2013-12-20T19:30:00.000Z · Malaga 1-0 Elche (La Liga)

La Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	9	9	0	0	30	27
2	Atletico Madrid	9	7	1	1	11	22
3	Real Madrid	9	7	0	2	14	21
4	Real Betis	9	6	1	2	2	19
5	Real Sociedad	9	5	1	3	0	16
6	Sevilla	9	4	2	3	-2	14
7	Alaves	9	3	2	4	3	11
8	Celta Vigo	9	2	5	2	3	11
9	Deportivo La Coruna	9	2	5	2	1	11
10	Osasuna	9	3	2	4	-8	11
11	Levante	9	2	4	3	-2	10
12	Villarreal	9	2	3	4	0	9
13	Athletic Club	8	2	3	3	-1	9
14	Rayo Vallecano	8	2	3	3	-5	9
15	Getafe	9	2	3	4	-6	9
16	Espanyol	9	2	2	5	-1	8
17	Racing Santander	9	2	2	5	-12	8
18	Elche	9	1	4	4	-6	7
19	Valencia	9	1	3	5	-9	6
20	Malaga	9	0	4	5	-12	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Elche win, at 49.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.