Estadio La Rosaleda · Referee M. Ortiz · Analysis updated 20:37 UTC
Malaga vs Villarreal Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Malaga and 1.50 for Villarreal, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Villarreal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Villarreal win
47.6% probability
Expected goals
1.05 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Malaga home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Villarreal away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 0–111.7%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–28.8%
- 1–08.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.30 (model 49.5% vs market 40.6%, edge +8.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.30 | 40.6% | 49.5% | 2.02 | +8.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.85 | 51.1% | 52.4% | 1.91 | +1.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.29 | 73.3% | 73.5% | 1.36 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 25.8% | 25.9% | 3.86 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 3.50 | 26.5% | 26.5% | 3.77 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 1.95 | 47.6% | 47.6% | 2.10 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.6% | 74.1% | 1.35 | -1.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.57 | 59.4% | 50.5% | 1.98 | -8.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Malaga
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Getafe · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-17T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Villarreal · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Celta Vigo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Levante · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid · 0-4 (L)
Villarreal
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Levante · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Malaga · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Dortmund · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2018-04-01T16:30:00.000Z · Malaga 1-0 Villarreal (La Liga)
- 2017-11-05T17:30:00.000Z · Malaga 0-2 Villarreal (La Liga)
- 2017-02-12T11:00:00.000Z · Malaga 1-1 Villarreal (La Liga)
- 2016-09-10T16:15:00.000Z · Malaga 0-2 Villarreal (La Liga)
- 2016-02-13T17:15:00.000Z · Malaga 0-1 Villarreal (La Liga)
- 2015-09-23T20:00:00.000Z · Malaga 0-1 Villarreal (La Liga)
- 2015-05-17T17:00:00.000Z · Malaga 1-2 Villarreal (La Liga)
- 2015-01-10T17:00:00.000Z · Malaga 1-1 Villarreal (La Liga)
- 2014-04-21T20:00:00.000Z · Malaga 2-0 Villarreal (La Liga)
- 2013-11-29T19:30:00.000Z · Malaga 1-1 Villarreal (La Liga)
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Villarreal win, at 47.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.