· Analysis updated 15:18 UTC
Maldon & Tiptree vs Carshalton Athletic Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Maldon & Tiptree and 1.96 for Carshalton Athletic, a combined total of 3.65. That distribution gives Carshalton Athletic the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.4% probability
Expected goals
1.68 – 1.96
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Maldon & Tiptree home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Carshalton Athletic away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Carshalton Athletic to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 34% / 22% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for Maldon & Tiptree and 1.96 for Carshalton Athletic, a combined 3.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.6%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–17.3%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–35.5%
Recent form
Maldon & Tiptree
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Egham Town · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Brentwood Town · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Carshalton Athletic · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Ramsgate · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Whitehawk · 3-2 (W)
Carshalton Athletic
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Wingate & Finchley · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dulwich Hamlet · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Enfield Town · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs St Albans City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Eastbourne Borough · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · Maldon & Tiptree 2-3 Carshalton Athletic (Non League Premier - Isthmian)
- 2011-11-26T15:00:00.000Z · Maldon & Tiptree 0-1 Carshalton Athletic (FA Trophy)
Non League Premier - Isthmian table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Enfield Town | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 28 |
| 2 | Welling United | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 27 |
| 3 | Lewes | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 26 |
| 4 | Dartford | 13 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 24 |
| 5 | Ramsgate | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 22 |
| 6 | Eastbourne Borough | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 22 |
| 7 | Carshalton Athletic | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | -5 | 22 |
| 8 | Chatham Town | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 21 |
| 9 | Burgess Hill Town | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 20 |
| 10 | Wingate & Finchley | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 20 |
| 11 | St Albans City | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 12 | Dulwich Hamlet | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 17 |
| 13 | Leatherhead | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 15 |
| 14 | Whyteleafe | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -3 | 15 |
| 15 | Cheshunt | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | -3 | 15 |
| 16 | Aveley | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -1 | 14 |
| 17 | Maldon & Tiptree | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -17 | 13 |
| 18 | Cray Wanderers | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 |
| 19 | Brentwood Town | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | -1 | 12 |
| 20 | Three Bridges | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -13 | 9 |
| 21 | Whitehawk | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -20 | 6 |
| 22 | Stanway Rovers | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | -23 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.