· Analysis updated 03:53 UTC
Maldon & Tiptree vs Eastbourne Borough Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Maldon & Tiptree and 2.02 for Eastbourne Borough, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Eastbourne Borough the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Eastbourne Borough win
57.9% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 2.02
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Maldon & Tiptree home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Eastbourne Borough away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Eastbourne Borough to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 21% / 21% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for Maldon & Tiptree and 2.02 for Eastbourne Borough, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.9%
- 1–19.8%
- 0–28.7%
- 0–18.7%
- 1–36.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.0%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.20 | 41.6% | 42.1% | 2.38 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.17 | 78.2% | 78.7% | 1.27 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Away | 1.55 | 57.6% | 57.9% | 1.73 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Home | 4.33 | 20.6% | 20.8% | 4.81 | +0.2 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.53 | 60.9% | 60.9% | 1.64 | 0.0 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.38 | 39.1% | 39.1% | 2.56 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.10 | 21.8% | 21.3% | 4.69 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.14 | 80.2% | 79.2% | 1.26 | -1.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Maldon & Tiptree
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dulwich Hamlet · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Aveley · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lewes · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Whyteleafe · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Welling United · 0-1 (L)
Eastbourne Borough
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Leatherhead · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Three Bridges · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Salisbury · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Welling United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-05T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Carshalton Athletic · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
Non League Premier - Isthmian table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Enfield Town | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 28 |
| 2 | Welling United | 13 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 27 |
| 3 | Lewes | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 26 |
| 4 | Chatham Town | 13 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 24 |
| 5 | Dartford | 13 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 24 |
| 6 | Ramsgate | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 22 |
| 7 | Eastbourne Borough | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 22 |
| 8 | Carshalton Athletic | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | -5 | 22 |
| 9 | Burgess Hill Town | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 20 |
| 10 | Wingate & Finchley | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 20 |
| 11 | Dulwich Hamlet | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 18 |
| 12 | St Albans City | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 |
| 13 | Leatherhead | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 15 |
| 14 | Whyteleafe | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -3 | 15 |
| 15 | Cheshunt | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | -6 | 15 |
| 16 | Aveley | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -1 | 14 |
| 17 | Maldon & Tiptree | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | -17 | 14 |
| 18 | Cray Wanderers | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 |
| 19 | Brentwood Town | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | -1 | 12 |
| 20 | Three Bridges | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -13 | 9 |
| 21 | Stanway Rovers | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | -20 | 7 |
| 22 | Whitehawk | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -20 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Eastbourne Borough win, at 57.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.