Financial Stadium Kafr El Zayat · Analysis updated 01:48 UTC
Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat vs Aswan Sc Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat and 0.63 for Aswan Sc, a combined total of 1.78. That distribution gives Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat win
48.5% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aswan Sc away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 32% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat and 0.63 for Aswan Sc, a combined 1.78 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–019.5%
- 0–016.9%
- 1–112.2%
- 2–011.2%
- 0–110.6%
Recent form
Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat
- 2026-10-22T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Kahraba Ismailia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-16T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Pharco · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-09T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Baladiyyat Al Mehalla · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T12:30:00.000Z · A vs El Dakhleya · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-24T13:30:00.000Z · H vs El Mansura · 2-0 (W)
Aswan Sc
- 2026-05-14T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-05-07T13:30:00.000Z · H vs El Dakhleya · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-30T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Olympic El Qanah · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Masar · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs El Seka El Hadid · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-14T12:45:00.000Z · Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 5-1 Aswan Sc (Second League)
- 2025-12-26T12:30:00.000Z · Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 0-0 Aswan Sc (Second League)
Second League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Masar | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Haras El Hodood | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 20 |
| 3 | Itesalat | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 19 |
| 4 | Pharco | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 19 |
| 5 | Kahraba Ismailia | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 18 |
| 6 | Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 18 |
| 7 | AL Nasr SC | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 8 | Tersana | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 9 | El Mansura | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 10 | El Seka El Hadid | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 11 | Baladiyyat Al Mehalla | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 12 | Team | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 13 | El Entag EL Harby | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 14 | Ismaily SC | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Tanta SC | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 16 | El Dakhleya | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 17 | Proxy | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 8 |
| 18 | La Viena FC | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -6 | 7 |
| 19 | Dayrout | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -16 | 6 |
| 20 | Mega Sport | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -11 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat win, at 48.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.