Mali Coura vs Bougouni Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for Mali Coura and 0.59 for Bougouni, a combined total of 2.01. That distribution gives Mali Coura the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Mali Coura win

57.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.42 – 0.59

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Mali Coura home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mali Coura to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 27% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.42 goals for Mali Coura and 0.59 for Bougouni, a combined 2.01 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 33% and both teams to score at 34%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%.

Match result (1X2)

Mali Coura win57%

Draw27%

Bougouni win16%

Double chance 1X

84%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

43%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals60%

Over 2.5 goals33%

Over 3.5 goals15%

Both teams to score34%

Correct score

1–019.0%
2–013.5%
0–013.4%
1–111.3%
2–18.0%

Recent form

Mali Coura

2026-06-14T18:15:00.000Z · A vs USFAS Bamako · 1-2 (L)
2026-06-10T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Derby Academie · 2-2 (D)
2026-06-04T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Bougouni · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-31T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Onze Créateurs · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-24T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Stade Malien Bamako · 1-1 (D)

Bougouni

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Première Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Djoliba	26	18	5	3	29	59
2	Stade Malien Bamako	26	14	8	4	13	50
3	Réal Bamako	26	14	7	5	18	49
4	Diarra	26	13	5	8	8	44
5	Binga	26	12	7	7	13	43
6	USFAS Bamako	26	12	6	8	10	42
7	ASKO	26	9	6	11	-3	33
8	US Bougouba	26	8	7	11	-13	31
9	Derby Academie	26	5	14	7	-3	29
10	Bakaridjan	26	6	9	11	-7	27
11	Afrique Football Élite	26	7	6	13	-15	27
12	Onze Créateurs	26	6	8	12	-8	26
13	Mali Coura	26	4	8	14	-11	20
14	Bougouni	26	4	4	18	-31	16

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Mali Coura win, at 57.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.