Moulay Rachid Stadium · Referee A. Makhalima · Analysis updated 14:28 UTC
Mali W vs Ghana W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Mali W and 1.38 for Ghana W, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Mali W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.2% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mali W home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mali W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 25% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Mali W and 1.38 for Ghana W, a combined 2.88 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 55% and both teams to score at 58%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–08.4%
- 1–28.0%
- 0–17.7%
Recent form
Mali W
- 2026-08-06T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Ghana W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-02T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Cape Verde W · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-07-29T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Cameroon W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ivory Coast W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Burkina Faso W · 2-2 (D)
Ghana W
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Africa Cup of Nations - Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Morocco W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Algeria W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Senegal W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Kenya W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 |
| 1 | Ivory Coast W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | South Africa W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Tanzania W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Burkina Faso W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 1 | Zambia W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 2 | Nigeria W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Malawi W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Egypt W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -12 | 0 |
| 1 | Cameroon W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Ghana W | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Mali W | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Cape Verde W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.