· Analysis updated 10:48 UTC
Malisheva vs Drenica Skënderaj Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.35 expected goals for Malisheva and 0.75 for Drenica Skënderaj, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Malisheva the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Malisheva win
73.1% probability
Expected goals
2.35 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Malisheva home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Drenica Skënderaj away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Malisheva to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 73% / 17% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.35 goals for Malisheva and 0.75 for Drenica Skënderaj, a combined 3.10 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
27%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.4%
- 1–010.6%
- 3–09.7%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–18.0%
Recent form
Malisheva
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Vushtrria · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Prishtina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Drita · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ballkani · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Llapi · 4-0 (W)
Drenica Skënderaj
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Llapi · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vushtrria · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Prishtina · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Drita · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-28T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Ballkani · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malisheva | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 26 |
| 2 | Prishtina | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 23 |
| 3 | Gjilani | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | Drita | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | Dukagjini | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | Ballkani | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 13 |
| 7 | Drenica Skënderaj | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -3 | 11 |
| 8 | Feronikeli | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 8 |
| 9 | Llapi | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -15 | 5 |
| 10 | Vushtrria | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -18 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Malisheva win, at 73.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.