· Analysis updated 15:20 UTC
Malisheva vs Gjilani Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Malisheva and 1.28 for Gjilani, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Malisheva the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.8% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Malisheva home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gjilani away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 1–09.8%
- 0–19.2%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–27.9%
Recent form
Malisheva
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Vushtrria · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Prishtina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Drita · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ballkani · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Llapi · 4-0 (W)
Gjilani
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Dukagjini · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-23T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Llapi · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-14T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Feronikeli · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Metalul Buzău · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-31T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Prishtina e Re · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · Malisheva 3-1 Gjilani (Superliga)
- 2026-04-29T13:00:00.000Z · Malisheva 3-1 Gjilani (Superliga)
- 2026-02-28T12:00:00.000Z · Malisheva 1-2 Gjilani (Superliga)
- 2025-11-09T12:00:00.000Z · Malisheva 1-2 Gjilani (Superliga)
- 2025-09-14T13:00:00.000Z · Malisheva 3-1 Gjilani (Superliga)
- 2025-05-06T13:00:00.000Z · Malisheva 0-0 Gjilani (Superliga)
- 2025-03-12T13:00:00.000Z · Malisheva 4-1 Gjilani (Superliga)
- 2024-12-01T12:00:00.000Z · Malisheva 1-0 Gjilani (Superliga)
- 2024-09-22T13:00:00.000Z · Malisheva 2-1 Gjilani (Superliga)
- 2024-05-05T13:00:00.000Z · Malisheva 0-0 Gjilani (Superliga)
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malisheva | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 23 |
| 2 | Prishtina | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 20 |
| 3 | Gjilani | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17 |
| 4 | Drita | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | Dukagjini | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Ballkani | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | Drenica Skënderaj | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 8 | Feronikeli | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 8 |
| 9 | Llapi | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -15 | 4 |
| 10 | Vushtrria | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -18 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.