· Analysis updated 15:25 UTC
Malkiya vs A'Ali Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.73 expected goals for Malkiya and 0.80 for A'Ali, a combined total of 1.53. That distribution gives A'Ali the largest share of the 1X2 market at 34%, with the draw at 36%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 20% for over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 34% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.9% probability
Expected goals
0.73 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Malkiya home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
A'Ali away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 30% / 36% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.73 goals for Malkiya and 0.80 for A'Ali, a combined 1.53 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
64%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–021.8%
- 0–117.4%
- 1–015.8%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–27.0%
Recent form
Malkiya
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Riffa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs A'Ali · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-02T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Najma · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sitra · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-16T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Sitra · 0-1 (L)
A'Ali
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs East Riffa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Malkiya · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Khalidiya · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Manama · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-16T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Muharraq · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 28% and over 2.5 goals at 20%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.