· Analysis updated 17:02 UTC
Malkiya vs Al Shabab Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Malkiya and 0.87 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Malkiya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Malkiya win
51.5% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Malkiya home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Shabab away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.0%
- 1–112.3%
- 2–010.4%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–19.1%
Recent form
Malkiya
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Riffa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs A'Ali · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-02T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Najma · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sitra · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-16T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Sitra · 0-1 (L)
Al Shabab
- 2026-05-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Hidd · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sitra · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Riffa · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bahrain SC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-18T14:25:00.000Z · A vs Malkiya · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-18T14:25:00.000Z · Malkiya 1-0 Al Shabab (Premier League)
- 2026-02-01T17:45:00.000Z · Malkiya 1-2 Al Shabab (King's Cup)
- 2025-11-07T16:00:00.000Z · Malkiya 1-0 Al Shabab (Premier League)
- 2025-04-15T16:00:00.000Z · Malkiya 0-0 Al Shabab (Premier League)
- 2024-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · Malkiya 0-0 Al Shabab (Premier League)
- 2022-09-24T14:00:00.000Z · Malkiya 0-6 Al Shabab (Federation Cup)
- 2019-02-20T15:30:00.000Z · Malkiya 1-3 Al Shabab (Premier League)
- 2018-11-29T15:30:00.000Z · Malkiya 4-0 Al Shabab (Premier League)
- 2018-03-31T15:30:00.000Z · Malkiya 0-1 Al Shabab (Premier League)
- 2017-10-27T14:30:00.000Z · Malkiya 2-2 Al Shabab (Premier League)
Premier League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Malkiya win, at 51.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.