Estadi Son Bibiloni · Analysis updated 13:24 UTC
Mallorca II vs Felanitx Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.63 expected goals for Mallorca II and 0.90 for Felanitx, a combined total of 3.53. That distribution gives Mallorca II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mallorca II win
74.2% probability
Expected goals
2.63 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mallorca II home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Felanitx away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
26%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.1%
- 2–19.1%
- 3–08.9%
- 3–18.0%
- 1–07.7%
Recent form
Mallorca II
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Alcoyano · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · A vs La Nucía · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Murcia II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportiva Minera · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Valencia II · 1-1 (D)
Felanitx
- 2026-05-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Santanyí · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Son Cladera · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-04-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Alcúdia · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-22T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Platges Calvià · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Mallorca II · 1-8 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-19T10:00:00.000Z · Mallorca II 8-1 Felanitx (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)
- 2025-12-13T16:30:00.000Z · Mallorca II 1-0 Felanitx (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)
- 2024-03-02T15:30:00.000Z · Mallorca II 1-0 Felanitx (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)
- 2023-10-14T15:15:00.000Z · Mallorca II 3-0 Felanitx (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)
- 2022-04-14T10:00:00.000Z · Mallorca II 7-1 Felanitx (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)
- 2021-12-12T11:00:00.000Z · Mallorca II 2-0 Felanitx (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)
- 2019-12-14T17:00:00.000Z · Mallorca II 0-1 Felanitx (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Constància | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Manacor | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | Ibiza Islas Pitiusas | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 16 |
| 4 | Platges Calvià | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Cardassar | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 6 | Santanyí | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 7 | Formentera | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | PE Sant Jordi | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 | Llosetense | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Alcúdia | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Porreres | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Mercadal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Binissalem | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 14 | Andratx | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 15 | Arenal | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 16 | Migjorn | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Sineu | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 1 |
| 18 | Inter Ibiza | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mallorca II win, at 74.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.