· Analysis updated 14:36 UTC
Mallorca II vs Orihuela Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Mallorca II and 1.08 for Orihuela, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Orihuela the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.7% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mallorca II home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Orihuela away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Orihuela to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 32% / 30% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.98 goals for Mallorca II and 1.08 for Orihuela, a combined 2.05 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.8%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–012.9%
- 1–012.6%
- 0–27.4%
Recent form
Mallorca II
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Alcoyano · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · A vs La Nucía · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Murcia II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportiva Minera · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Valencia II · 1-1 (D)
Orihuela
- 2026-09-20T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportiva Minera · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Real Murcia · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Lorca Deportiva · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T10:00:00.000Z · A vs San Fernando CD · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Murcia II · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ucam Murcia | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 12 |
| 2 | Castellón II | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 12 |
| 3 | Castellonense | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | La Nucía | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 5 | Cieza | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 |
| 6 | Deportiva Minera | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Alcoyano | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 8 | Yeclano | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Intercity | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Lorca Deportiva | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Elche II | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | Orihuela | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 7 |
| 13 | Mallorca II | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Atlético Baleares | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | Poblense | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | Peña Deportiva | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 17 | Valencia II | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 18 | Real Murcia II | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.